Published in 2018

• [2018] R-squared for Bayesian regression models. {\em American Statistician}. (Andrew Gelman, Ben Goodrich, Jonah Gabry, and Aki Vehtari)

• [2018] Voter registration databases and MRP: Toward the use of large scale databases in public opinion research. {\em Political Analysis}. (Yair Ghitza and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation for model selection.” {\em Computational Brain and Behavior}. (Aki Vehtari, Daniel P. Simpson, Yuling Yao, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Post-hoc power using observed estimate of effect size is too noisy to be useful. {\em Annals of Surgery}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Abandon statistical significance. {\em American Statistician}. (Blakeley B. McShane, David Gal, Andrew Gelman, Christian Robert, and Jennifer L. Tackett)

• [2018] The statistical significance filter leads to overconfident expectations of replicability. {\em Journal of Memory and Language} {\bf 103}, 151–175. (Shravan Vasishth, Daniela Mertzen, Lena A. Jäger, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Large scale replication projects in contemporary psychological research. {\em American Statistician}. (Blakely B. McShane, Jennifer L. Tackett, Ulf Bockenholt, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Do researchers anchor their beliefs on the outcome of an initial study? Testing the time-reversal heuristic. {\em Experimental Psychology} {\bf 65}, 158–169. (Anja Ernst, Rink Hoekstra, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Andrew Gelman, and Don van Ravenzwaaij)

• [2018] Ethics in statistical practice and communication: Five recommendations. {\em Significance}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Bayesian inference under cluster sampling with probability proportional to size. {\em Statistics in Medicine}. (Susanna Makela, Yajuan Si, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Yes, but did it work?: Evaluating variational inference. {\em Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Machine Learning}. (Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Why high-order polynomials should not be used in regression discontinuity designs. {\em Journal of Business and Economic Statistics}. (Andrew Gelman and Guido Imbens)

• [2018] Gaydar and the fallacy of decontextualized measurement. {\em Sociological Science}. (Andrew Gelman, Greggor Matson, and Daniel Simpson)

• [2018] Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades. {\em Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}. (Heather M. Kharouba, Johan Ehrlén, Andrew Gelman, Kjell Bolmgren, Jenica M. Allen, Steve E. Travers, and Elizabeth M. Wolkovich)

• [2018] The Millennium Villages Project: A retrospective, observational, endline evaluation. {\em Lancet Global Health} {\bf 6}. (Shira Mitchell, Andrew Gelman, Rebecca Ross, Joyce Chen, Sehrish Bari, Uyen Kim Huynh, Matthew W. Harris, Sonia Ehrlich Sachs, Elizabeth A. Stuart, Avi Feller, Susanna Makela, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Lucy McClellan, Seth Ohemeng-Dapaah, Patricia Namakula, Cheryl A. Palm, and Jeffrey D. Sachs)Supplementary appendix.

• [2018] Don’t calculate post-hoc power using observed estimate of effect size. {\em Annals of Surgery}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Visualization in Bayesian workflow (with discussion). {\em Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A}. (Jonah Gabry, Daniel Simpson, Aki Vehtari, Michael Betancourt, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Disentangling bias and variance in election polls. {\em Journal of the American Statistical Association}. (Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Don’t characterize replications as successes or failures. Discussion of “Making replication mainstream,” by Rolf A. Zwaan et al. {\em Behavioral and Brain Sciences}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion). {\em Bayesian Analysis} {\bf 13}, 917–1003. (Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, and Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Review of {\em New Explorations into International Relations: Democracy, Foreign Investment, Terrorism, and Conflict}, by Seung-Whan Choi. {\em Perspectives on Politics}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Benefits and limitations of randomized controlled trials. Discussion of “Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials,” by Angus Deaton and Nancy Cartwright. {\em Social Science \& Medicine}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] The failure of null hypothesis significance testing when studying incremental changes, and what to do about it. {\em Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin} {\bf 44}, 16–23. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Bayesian aggregation of average data: An application in drug development. {\em Annals of Applied Statistics} {\bf 12}, 1583–1604.(Sebastian Weber, Andrew Gelman, Daniel Lee, Michael Betancourt, Aki Vehtari, and Amy Racine-Poon)

• [2018] How to think scientifically about scientists’ proposals for fixing science. {\em Socius}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Learning from and responding to statistical criticism. {\em Observational Studies}. (Andrew Gelman)

• [2018] Donald Rubin. In {\em Encyclopedia of Social Research Methods}, ed.\ Paul Atkinson, Sara Delamont, Melissa Hardy, and Malcolm Williams. Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage Publications. (Andrew Gelman)