FIFA WC 2018: Semi-Finals and the Final

I am happy to see that a simple Elo Rating system was able to predict the outcome of the soccer matches in the ongoing WC with a good degree of accuracy.

This Elo System was developed by taking the performance of the teams at the end of the group stage matches. After that the performance of the teams is updated based on the outcome of each game.

So following stats show how the model has perfomed so far:-

  1. All 8 matches from the round of 16 were correctly predicted.

  2. 3 of the 4 games from the quarter finals were correctly predicted.

  3. 1 out of the 2 semi-final matches was correctly predicted.

Here are the predictions

Pre-Quarter Finals:

Quarter Finals:

Semi-Finals and Final: